[Polyester into textile export growth "only seedling" July growth rate is afraid to fall back] Huarui information senior analyst Yuan Yuan told the Caixin News Agency reporter said, "this year 1-5 months polyester filament and staple fiber exports are relatively good, filament exports increased by 31% year-on-year growth, staple fiber growth of 27%. The reason is that under the influence of India's BIS certification, manufacturers advance to catch up with the volume, the probability of the impact of this factor can only continue to June; in addition, this year's large factories are also actively expanding overseas markets, the export performance is obviously better."

The first half of the textile and garment industry chain alternating hot and cold, textile and garment exports declined, chemical fiber exports became the only seedling of growth, mainly for polyester filament, staple fiber growth.

Huarui information senior analyst Yuan Yuan told Caixin News Agency reporter, "this year 1-5 months polyester filament and staple fiber exports are relatively good, filament exports increased by 31% year-on-year, staple fiber growth of 27%. The reason is that under the influence of India's BIS certification, manufacturers advance to catch up with the volume, the probability of the impact of this factor can only continue to June; In addition, this year, the big mills are also actively expanding overseas markets, the export performance is obviously better."

India for polyester filament for the implementation of BIS mandatory certification news in the industry has been rumored for a long time, the industry currently believes that this year's July began to polyester POY, FDY, industrial filament implementation, due to the uncertainty of the application for certification, a number of manufacturers choose to ship in advance to cope with.

Early shipments to a large extent boosted the polyester trade between China and India, Yuan Yuan mentioned that last year, 1-5 months of polyester exports of the top three countries are Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey, India ranked 7th, the share of only 5%, and this year, 1, 2, May's export of the first are India, the share of the combined January-May at 13%, ranking first.

In addition, according to customs data statistics, this year 1-5 months polyester filament, staple fiber exports increased 516,000 tons, an increase of 30%; exported to India's polyester filament, staple fiber increased by 194,000 tons, an increase of 219%. Only India's export increment will occupy the overall polyester export increment of about 38%, alone polyester filament increment accounted for 46%.

Zhuochuang information polyester analyst Zhai Xinyu likewise mentioned to the Caixin reporter the demand front brought about by India's BIS, "After July (export volume) may fall back a bit from the previous year, and the (volume) of exports to other countries will not change much."

Textile and apparel orders are gradually flowing to Southeast Asian countries, with strong export momentum from Vietnam and Bangladesh. Many of them from Chinese enterprises to take the initiative to transfer, mainly for tariffs, environmental policies, industrial transformation and upgrading, labor costs and other considerations. But as a raw material for textile and clothing, polyester and other chemical fiber products, production capacity has not yet been transferred to a large number of overseas.

Zhai Xinyu mentioned that the future trend of domestic chemical fiber products are exported, foreign chemical fiber downstream production growth rate is very high, the demand gap for chemical fiber products is also gradually expanding. At the same time, domestic production capacity expansion continues, the need for more markets.

Chemical fiber leading enterprises in the last two years in the overseas layout, to the upstream extension of the main, for example, new Fengming (603225.SH) and Tong Kun shares (601233.SH) two polyester giants in the June 26 announcement, plans to start the integration of refining and chemical projects in Indonesia Beijia, the project reported a total investment of 8.624 billion U.S. dollars, the production of polyester upstream products, including refined products, p-xylene (PX).

New Fengming mentioned in the announcement, "Indonesia investment refining project is not an industrial transfer but industry chain extension, is for the domestic polyester filament main industry better development and growth, for China's textile and apparel industry with international competitiveness to make a greater contribution."

Similarly, Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ) is also overseas construction of upstream refineries, domestic expansion of the downstream, its refinery in Brunei production of refinery products as well as PX, benzene and other chemicals, Brunei Phase II is also under construction.

From the point of view of export prices, Yuan Yuan said that the domestic polyester production efficiency, industrial chain supporting the whole, ultimately reflected in the price advantage; this year, due to the upstream raw material price cuts, polyester prices are also reduced accordingly.

Overseas dependence on China's textile raw materials, but the industry is still worried about whether downstream demand can improve, that is, Europe and the United States market inventory progress and domestic textile and apparel products export changes. Customs data show that from January to May China's textile and apparel exports totaled $ 118.2 billion, a year-on-year decline of 5.3%, of which textiles fell by 9.4% year-on-year, apparel fell 1.0% year-on-year. textiles in the month of May fell by 14.1% year-on-year, apparel fell by 12.4%.

Article source: Caixin